[ECDC Announce] News: Lutz wins Primary!

[Ray Lutz]

It's official!! We won this one with 100% of the vote! But what is more 
interesting is the actual count of votes cast for each of the 
candidates, even though we are not competing.

Joel Anderson (R): 28314
Ray Lutz (D): 16414
Richard Belitz (L): 200

For the most part, these numbers represent the base in each party, with 
no opportunity to sway voters from their party. At this time, there are 
still about 74,000 ballots uncounted.

In the 2006 election, we had far better turnout as it was the terminator 
was on the ballot, with 505715 ballots cast. This time, there are about 
400,000 ballots cast, but I don't have the final number. Rs totalled 
39,087 votes last time, and Ds had 19097. Assuming a proportional drop 
based on the total ballots cast in all races, We would expect about a 
20% drop in this race, with Anderson getting 31270 votes, and I should 
get 15277. However, I'm beating that estimate by 1200 votes and Anderson 
is off by about 3000 votes. That's an improvement of 4200 votes a 
movement of 25% of the total votes cast.

There are a couple of things to keep in mind.
1) The republican primary in the east county is considered the main 
event, esp. for the 52nd CD, driving relatively high turnout and likely 
requests for a Republican ballot by any DTS voters going to the polls. 
Anderson may have a bit of a bump from that phenomena, as he is the only 
name on the ballot for repugs.
2) I am counting on local-issues crossover votes to make a difference. 
no crossovers were possible here.

With 207,000 voters in the district, we got a lousy turnout of only 21% 
of the voters, but it is still a handy stat as these are the "core" 
voters for the most part (except for #1 above).

THANK YOU TO EVERYONE Who helped, contributed, placed signs etc. OUR 
WORK IS NOT DONE!

 > Please help collect the signs you placed (you can keep them on your 
own property, in most cases). Keep these signs for Sept. timeframe.
 > PLease attend upcoming house parties, etc.!

I'M SO HAPPY TO WORK WITH YOU !

--Ray



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Ray Lutz, Candidate
"Lutz For Assembly" 77th District
1010 Old Chase Ave.             
El Cajon, CA 92020 USA
Voice 619-447-3246
http//www.LutzForAssembly.com
Click to donate: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_donations&business=raylutz%40LutzForAssembly%2ecom&item_name=Lutz%20for%20Assembly&no_shipping=0&no_note=1&tax=0&currency_code=USD&lc=US&bn=PP%2dDonationsBF&charset=UTF%2d8